Our articles about business, investment, finance, ideas
We are starting our blog with one of the most complex and unpredictable themes: will there be the global financial crisis at all, and if yes, then how soon?! The Alliance’s Partners, experts and analysts, being the incorrigible optimists, are convinced: yes, it will be. Moreover, the probability of its (the crisis) coming this year is more than significant.
We shall not be repeating the opinions of the leading international and Russian analysts on the fundamental indicators, "Elliot waves" and other important factors that we, certainly, use and take into account making various necessary forecasts. Our confidence is determined, in the first instance, by the following:
We believe that the start of the global financial storm will traditionally fall on the end of August – beginning of September this year. We do not at all give our forecast with the view to "show off" and be in the trend of the essential and intriguing topics.
Our goal is to form a society of the CARING people, together with whom we shall use these INCREDIBLE opportunities to be opened by the crisis. As we have already said, this will be a real "window of opportunities". Window of great opportunities.
In order to make use of it, we are forming the multifunctional project Teams, to participate in which we are inviting the Partners and specialists of various professions, views and thoughts. Just now, we are preparing various programs of which we will be talking almost daily, and we are establishing an Alliance of the people having the most "crazy" ideas, as well as of the practitioners possessing real expertise in various industries and sectors.
The Idea No. 2 from the Red Miracle will be relevant and useful for those who, having read the previous idea, began wondering about what, anyway, is happening now with the economies of the world, the
country, the economic sector or the company, a business entity or a certain household.
What is happening is as follows: all the investors are virtually "at the low start" and are waiting for the next "explosive" news that, quite possibly, may become "the last drop" and grow into panic
capable of causing an avalanche of financial turmoil.
We have already said that something has been "broken" in the people’s minds.
Even a nonexpert understands that a chain of the ongoing events – trade "wars", mutual sanctions and reproaches, absence of a dialog even between the bosom friends – is abnormal and will lead to the
The Red Miracle does not practically have any doubts that the size of the forthcoming financial turmoil may be, as a minimum, comparable with the size of the crises of the years 1998 and 2008. This is
indicated by all the main fundamental and technical parameters.
In recent years, the people’s emotions and sentiment all over the world have been near to euphoria, even in the countries and economies where, as it might seem, there have been no reason for that.
Stocks were rallying, and the commodity and stock market indicators ran high.
As the result, all this has led to the situation when not a simply large, but a huge financial bubble was formed, which cannot but burst.
Besides, with the approach of autumn, many people begin to feel a tinge of sadness, pessimistic sentiment begins to prevail, and there is a great desire to halt.
The Idea No. 2 from the Red Miracle consists in the proposal and advice to slow down, but only to look around attentively and assess your own situation, understand how much risk you have taken lately,
how many decisions you have taken and what their quality was. It should be noted that it is not just about business, but about your personal matters as well.
The Red Miracle recommends conducting an in-depth analysis and inventory taking of everything that is significant to you as of today. Do it with an unbiased eye, without euphoria or emotions, and
extremely objectively. HONESTLY evaluate all the strengths and weaknesses of the situation in your affairs.
The next step will simply be the necessity to put in order everything that may be fixed, even if this requires a lot of time. Act patiently and consistently. It is extremely important just now, this very moment.
Generally speaking, patience will now be the key factor for everyone who agrees with the opinion, forecasts and expectations of the Red Miracle: the forthcoming financial crisis is a huge opportunity.
Let us sum up the above and recapitulate the first two Ideas:
In addition to your own resources optimization, the proposed steps shall make it possible to divert your attention from the continuous flow of news many of which, closer to autumn, will be far from rosy for the economy.
The most important goal now is not to lose and to protect everything that may be protected, so that, when a favorable situation comes, we had strength, resources and
opportunities for a new start.
The global financial crisis of which we started talking last spring, is just around the corner already and, in our opinion, is "knocking at the door".
So that the coming "window of opportunities" may not be missed, the Red Miracle proposes to start a dialogue about what should be done to take advantage of the situation in full.
The first thing to begin with is to think of the present day and of our sentiments.
The events are developing in such a way that the “elite” is actively planting a whole set of "ideas" in our life:
When, day by day, torrents of negative information are poured into our heads, and the attention is focused on various difficulties and problems, it is quite natural that doubts and incertitude occur, which sometimes
may develop into the inferiority complex.
Many people are aware of what it means. "Self-scrutiny" begins: search of one’s own mistakes and missed opportunities, unkept promises and quenched hopes, ill acts and evil deeds, and what is worse, the feeling of
one’s own wrong and guilt for anything we do.
The purpose of all this is simple: the less we are educated, and the more we are aggressive (often feeling angry with oneself) and ignorant, without having any goals set before us, the easier it is to control us, to
sell all sorts of rubbish to us, and to use us in somebody’s interests, making us give our skills and abilities for "peanuts".
Red Miracle proposes to tell all of them (the "elite") to get lost just now, and to say to ourselves: we are the best!
Yes, of course, every day we are making mistakes, and we do not even notice many of them.
Yes, we often fail to "tune in to the right wave-length" and to start acting to change for the better. We feel lonely and helpless.
It will not last anymore!
From today, the Red Miracle invites everyone to get involved in our Project and join our community.
Together, we shall all get rid of complexes (of guilt, incertitude, or low self-esteem), and we shall start acting here and now, so that to use the opening opportunities to the fullest extent.
And of course, we have a major self-improvement work ahead of us, so that to become, in record-breaking time, the sellers, the investors, and the enthusiastic and self-confident people.
We believe that those who have taken heed of the previous ideas and have become "misers" (in a good sense) and zealous owners (who know what they have; know what they are in need for, and know what
they can currently do without), will find this continuance of the forecast and recommendations from the Red Miracle interesting.
So, we consider that the coming March and April will add a lot of nervousness to the markets, as well as will make the far from simple situation with the finance in the developing countries still more
The economies of these countries and their small and medium size businesses especially, will have to withstand many additional challenges.
This said, we are sure that time has come just now to start the active steps in search of the so-called undervalued assets.
By the undervalued and distressed assets, we mean the assets having the commercial value, but associated with some dispute, conflict, risk of loss, losses, or mismanagement.
There exist a number of reasons significantly reducing the real value of the asset (read about it at the end of this article).
To search and find such assets would be a great piece of luck. This is dependent on a number of reasons, be it the information disclosure restrictions or the owners’ economic and even personal safety
considerations. Not all the sellers are ready to post information about the sale of the assets belonging to them.
Currently, the distressed assets are not practically put up for sale in the open market, as:
Besides, there exist a number of nuances holding down the assets offer and purchase:
At the same time, if one has the desire and perseverance, this may be done. In this case, such assets will prove a real Klondike.
We draw the attention of those who will be patiently looking for such assets, at the tasks that will require to be solved:
The reasons for the sharp decline in the assets value may become the following:
The Red Miracle is ready to provide the necessary advice and practical assistance to those who will engage in the search of the undervalued assets.
For the last few years, in the business environment, words related to various expectations have been pronounced with increasing frequency.
Most often, their tone is utterly negative:
Really, all this causes anxiety and concern, as the current events regularly confirm the worst fears.
Our experts’ position concerning the economic outlook for the near future is neither causing optimism. All this leads to the disagreeable thinking of the future:
Our position and logic are as follows: it is time to “grow up” and start taking the well-balanced decisions.
Let us look at things objectively: it is far from always that we have taken on the task of deciding the matters of the business planning, strategies and tactics development, forming
the management models and quality control. It seemed to most of us that all this had been invented by the consultants just to draw the money from us.
Same way, the failure to perform the work or to provide a service in time was not considered anything quite exceptional.
We believe that today each businessperson thinking of his/her own business expectations should ask oneself a number of the key questions, i.e.:
We consider that it would be a gross mistake to start any serious projects now acting alone. Time has changed, and whatever it was possible to implement being driven by the enthusiasm
and the quick mind for business yesterday, is obviously insufficient today.
Besides, starting a new project or scaling your ongoing business, think of whom you will be able to sell it tomorrow; at what price; and how quickly.
These simple questions often seem naïve to us, and we do not think it right to ask them ourselves, sincerely believing that we are building the business "for ages" and not for sale.
However, this is a mistake.
The sense we have in mind writing this article is as follows:
These new avenues imply the following:
So, the Idea No. 1 from the Red Miracle is the idea for everyone. The Essence of the Idea is as follows: become "misers in grain" for the coming 6 or 8 months. What does it mean?
Draw a stop line: do not invest funds in the new projects, however attractive they may seem. If possible, put on hold the infusion of new funds in the already started projects. Give the further scaling of the existing projects a serious thought, provided that this may not entail punitive sanctions from the partners. It is desirable to stall those business programs that not only require new investments, but also divert funds from the working capital. If there is a possibility to sell at a reasonable price (close to fair price) your assets that are not vitally important, the Red Miracle strongly recommends - sell just now, without thinking. And, of course, it is necessary to quickly and radically (to the extent possible) reduce the transaction, management, marketing and other costs.
Stop and do not invest in the stock market. Freeze your contributions in the investment funds. Stop, for the time being, listening to the brokers and the investment advisors talking on the super-advantageous offers, unique products and the unexpectedly emerging opportunities of earning the above-market yield of investment. Just remember or think over that, or better ask those specialists if they had done anything with their own hands and how much their own funds they had invested in the advertised offers. In most cases, the purpose of such consultants is to sell the product marketed by their company or fund. The priorities for them are the interests of their employer and their own motivation, but by no means your profit. It is more than likely that they do not care at all if you may "suddenly" lose your money. The line of reasoning in such cases will be standard and "airtight": the "invisible" hand of the market has done its work, this is a force-majeure circumstance, and the market “sometimes” is exposed to the crises and disruption.
Show your mettle. Even if you have earned some surplus or unexpected income, make a pause. Do not spend this money just now. And what is for sure – do not take any loans which you want to spend on the purposes that may be postponed. It is also desirable to retrieve the funds invested in the risk-associated assets, provided that the retrieval fee will be reasonable.
The Idea No. 1 is the result of the synergy of the sincere opinions of real experts, advisors, managers of the financial and investment funds and manufacturing companies, as well as of the multi-year analytical research and study. Plus, the meticulous work on the study of the sentiments and expectations of the people of different ages and professions. The Red Miracle undertakes to assert that if you heed this Idea, at least, you will not lose, and the eventual losses will be kept to a minimum. As for the money you were going or wanted to spend nonetheless, you better convert it to the US Dollars and hoard it “under the pillow”, or stuff it, for the time being, in a mattress.